Totally Tricked –  When Will CGI Replace the Human Actor
By The Producer

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I can’t believe my eyes! Is it real or is it computer-generated imagery (CGI)? Every time I fire up the GrandTourismo in my Sony Playstation II I ask myself that question. I remember when I saw the first computer animated motion picture called “Toy Story”. I wondered how long it would be before Computer Generated Images (CGI) could convincingly replace human actors. And what a crazy place this will be when computers have the brute force to manipulate our minds so that our eyes are no longer are able to distinguish the reality from the fantasy.

It has already happened in print media where digitally manipulating images has been a mainstream process for quite some time. When you go through the checkout at the supermarket you can see the glamour magazines with sexy voluptuous girls on the covers. These covers get extensive makeovers by graphics wizards, transforming every imperfection into perfection. They manage to create images, which in reality are unattainable by all but the most gifted and rich. So what happens when this whole fantasy goes awry and not only the still pictures we look at distort reality but the motion pictures are fooling us as well?

Maybe we will no longer need actors? I will never again have to wait around for that unreliable model to show up and waste half my day in the process if she does not show. Every one of my video productions will have the biggest money shots the world has ever seen. No skinny guys. Everybody is buff. When can I get started? The day when CGI will produce life-like characters has to be coming – but it won’t be for a while due to today’s current level of technology. Problem is that defining “a while” in our fast paced high tech world may yield a much shorter period of time than you would expect.

Remember Moore’s Law? The observation made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented, and that the trend would continue for the foreseeable future. If Moore’s Law continues to prove correct, then around 2017-transistor miniaturization will stop as physical boundaries are reached. And as technology always does, at that time we will have a solution to this bottleneck, which will once again continue the previous trend toward smaller and more powerful computers and accessories. In our lifetime we will probably watch CGI movies so lifelike that our minds will tell us the actors we see are flesh and blood.

But just so you can get a grip on how powerful computer processors have to be in order to make this transition lets take a look at the main character in the 1995 movie “Toy Story”. Woody, the main character in Toy Story was also the most complex. Animators had to manage 100 controls in that character’s face alone. Toy Story 2, the sequel had 1000 controls in the face of its most complex character. To mimic human facial expressions with all the feelings and emotions a human face can muster will require hundreds of thousands or perhaps millions of controls. This would bowl over even the most talented of today’s animators when they are presented with making millions of adjustments each and every time something moves. Today, the labor intensive and costly animation work would make it impossible to produce such a motion picture. You might as well hire Tom Cruise.

So, should actors start to become concerned about loosing their jobs? Not just yet, but they are already learning to work with the technology, modifying their acting skills to fit in with the new production techniques. Take blue-screen acting for example where the background is completely replaced by CGI. By logical extension it will be the actor that is replaced next. When will this occur? Not even old man Moore can tell for sure, but for The Producer it can’t come soon enough. Damn, another model is late again.

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